Book: Storm before the Calm

"Storm Before the Calm" by George Friedman

Overall Theme: The book analyzes the cyclical nature of American history, particularly focusing on the interplay of institutional, socioeconomic, and geopolitical cycles. It argues that the United States is on the cusp of a significant period of crisis and transformation in the 2020s, driven by the convergence of these cycles and the challenges of maintaining its global empire. It argues the US has unwittingly become an empire and needs to adjust its strategies to account for this fact.

Part 1: The Invention of America

• The American Regime: Friedman emphasizes the intentional design of the American government, a "machine" created by the Founding Fathers. He quotes Benjamin Franklin's warning: "A Republic, if you can keep it." The US is a nation defined by its "moral project" where rights and national interests must both be considered.
• Moral Principles: Central to the regime is the principle that "each American ought to be free to succeed or fail in the things he wished to undertake." This is linked to the "pursuit of happiness," where "liberty is the freedom to define one’s own happiness."
• E Pluribus Unum: Friedman interprets the motto "E pluribus unum" (Out of many, one) as acknowledging the deep divisions between the original colonies. He argues this tension endures today.
• Inventiveness: Friedman highlights the inventive spirit of the founders, particularly Jefferson and Franklin, who were "technologists" and "lifelong inventors." This inventiveness, he argues, is "built into American culture."

Part 2: American Cycles

• Naming of America: The land was named by German mapmaker Martin Waldseemüller after Amerigo Vespucci.
• Reinventing Geography: Friedman argues that Americans have been particularly ambitious in "inventing and reinventing American geography." This includes infrastructure projects like railroads and diverting rivers for agriculture.
• The Louisiana Purchase: Friedman stresses the importance of the Louisiana Purchase, driven by Jefferson. It gave the United States "strategic depth and security" and was a "key to global power." Jefferson had a vital political reason for expansion, writing that “The larger our association, the less will it be shaken by local passions."
• The Great Valley: He describes the area between the Appalachians and Rockies as a fertile valley, divided into a wetter eastern part and a drier western part reliant on aquifers. This geographical difference led to distinct "ethics" – collaborative communities in the East and a more solitary life in the West.
• Protecting New Orleans: Jefferson considered New Orleans the single spot which, possessed by another power, would be a natural and habitual enemy.
• Washington's Farewell Address: It was an effort to tie the different US regions together with complementary economic interests.
• High Noon and the American Character: The movie character Kane displays the sense of dread that haunts the American character. The movie, which was set in New Mexico, is where the greatest scientific battle also played out – the development of the atomic bomb.
• The Inventor: Friedman discusses Thomas Edison, who created an organization designed to find applications for electricity, and to create a business to turn those applications into wealth. Edison’s most important contribution was a structure for inventing things – the first industrial research laboratory in Menlo Park, New Jersey.

Part 3: The Crisis and the Calm

• Moral Crimes: The book acknowledges the "enormous national guilt" for slavery and the treatment of Native Americans.
• The Emerging Crisis: Friedman suggests the 2020s will be a decade of crisis due to the confluence of institutional, economic, and social cycles. The nation's geopolitical role as an empire further intensifies these pressures.
• America as an Empire: The US has unwittingly become an empire. "An empire exists when its power is so great compared with other nations that simply by existing, it changes the shape of their relationships and the way other nations behave." This new status requires the US to devise a sustainable policy of empire.
• The Cold War and Perpetual War: Friedman argues that the Cold War created a "permanent war" mentality in the US, leading to a hunger for secrecy and the institutionalization of military service.
• Federal Government Entanglement: The federal government is now entangled in nearly every aspect of private life. "The entanglement between agencies becomes the defining characteristic of the federal system."
• Socioeconomic Cycles: Friedman outlines five socioeconomic cycles in American history and suggests that the fifth cycle (Reagan era) is ending. Each cycle had a transformative characteristic and a "pivotal moment." The sixth cycle is on the horizon.
• The Hayes Cycle: Hayes presided over solving the problems left by the Civil War.
• The Fourth Institutional Cycle: Involves a redefinition of the federal government’s relation to itself – how it sets priorities, focuses on achieving them, and is held accountable.
• Technocracy and Universities: Universities are now the home of technocracy. The emerging transformations of the 2020s crisis will revolve around the institutions of education. The university struggle will be an ideological struggle that will define the politics of the sixth socioeconomic cycle.
• Social Change: The traditions that once bound individuals together are fraying. The founders sought to balance liberty and obligation. In the sixth cycle, it will be an existential one, defining who we are as individuals.

Conclusion:

Friedman's "Storm Before the Calm" is a broad historical analysis predicting a coming period of upheaval for the United States. He argues that understanding the cyclical nature of American history is crucial for navigating the challenges ahead.

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