Book: Fourth Turning is Here

Neil Howe's "The Fourth Turning Is Here." The excerpts focus on cyclical patterns in history, the concept of "saecula" and generational archetypes, and their influence on social, political, and economic trends.

Main Themes

1. Cyclical Nature of History: The overarching theme is that history unfolds in recurring cycles, specifically a roughly 80-100 year cycle called a "saeculum," which is further divided into four "turnings." This concept draws inspiration from ancient Roman ideas of the saeculum and the cyclical nature of destiny.

• "As their city prospered and conquered, the Romans became obsessed with the saeculum as a rhythmic measure of their destiny."
• The author notes that even ancient civilizations like the Etruscans viewed time as "the playing out of an unalterable destiny."
• The idea of historical cycles challenges linear views of progress, with the author referencing Nikolai Kondratieff's work on long-term economic cycles ("K-cycles").

1. The Saeculum and its Four Turnings: The saeculum is presented as a fundamental unit of social time, influencing various aspects of society, from economic trends to cultural shifts and political alignments. It comprises four distinct turnings, each characterized by a different social mood and dominant generational archetype.

• The timing of phenomena like waves of feminism and trends in criminal violence are linked to the saeculum. "The timing of these waves follows the saeculum. Feminism, as a popular outlook, bursts on the scene during an Awakening."
• Criminal violence is shown to have downswings during "Highs" and upswings during "Unravelings," correlating with the saecular rhythm.
• The four turnings are implied through discussions of "Awakenings" (periods of spiritual and cultural renewal), "Unravelings" (periods of increasing individualism and weakening institutions), "Crises" (periods of existential threat and societal upheaval), and "Highs" (periods of order, prosperity, and civic confidence).

1. Generational Archetypes and Their Role: The book emphasizes the role of social generations, defined as peer groups born around the same time and sharing formative experiences, in shaping and being shaped by these historical cycles. Each saeculum features four distinct generational archetypes that come of age during different turnings and play specific roles in the unfolding cycle.

• "Social generations refer to entire peer groups, as when the New Testament speaks of ‘a faithless and perverse generation’ or the poet Hesiod of ‘generations’ of gold or silver or bronze."
• The author distinguishes between family generations and social generations.
• Generations develop a "perceived membership" and a "sense of destiny." "To ask ourselves to which generation we belong is, in large measure, to ask who we are."
• The impact of a generation is dependent on its phase of life during a given time period. "The type entering elderhood will be dominant. The type entering midlife will be rising in influence. The type coming of age into young adulthood will be regarded...as an early indicator of society’s long-term direction."

1. Social Mood and Its Predictability: The excerpts suggest that collective social mood fluctuates predictably with the saecular cycle, influencing everything from economic behavior to political outcomes.

• Political parties understand and exploit these predictive patterns. "They know, for example, that most of us will buy swimming trunks in June and snowmobiles in December; vacation less (but buy more lipstick) at the end of a recession; and swing for the out-of-office political party after a presidential election."
• The text argues that predictability, rather than denying freedom, is fundamental to social order and justice. "Indeed, the prospect of a person or society that is truly ‘free’ in the sense of being truly unpredictable would be terrifying."

1. The Nature and Necessity of Crisis: Crisis eras are depicted as intense periods of societal "introversion," often marked by conflict but also serving a crucial function in forging community solidarity and progress.

• During Awakenings and Crises, society is “introverting” most of the time."
• The author quotes William James on the "moral equivalent of war," acknowledging war's role in instilling social virtues like "toughness in adversity, obedience to command, surrender of private interest, and dedication to the commonweal."
• "So far, war has been the only force that can discipline a whole community, and until an equivalent discipline is organized, I believe that war must have its way."

Important Ideas and Facts

• Historical Parallels: The book draws parallels between different saecula in Western history, suggesting recurring patterns in societal development and the nature of crises. The English Armada crisis of the late 16th century is given as an example of a Crisis era climax and consolidation.
• The Armada Crisis saw England reach a "point of no return," leading to national unity and a decisive victory. "England reached the point of no return, thus marking the consolidation."
• Economic Cyclicality: The excerpt highlights the cyclical nature of market economies, referencing Kondratieff waves. Financial and economic turbulence are expected during Crisis eras, driven by shifts in social psychology and government intervention.
• "The financial and economic turbulence of Crisis eras should be no mystery. It rides atop the eras’ underlying social psychology, which as we have seen is driven by mounting waves of distrust and fear alternating with mounting counterwaves of confidence and hope."
• Modern State Formation: National conflicts and the development of the modern state are linked through a positive feedback loop where war leads to stronger states, which in turn can wage more effective wars, fostering internal peace and economic growth.
• "Bigger state armies lead to more peace over more territory, which leads to more secure individual rights and transactions at greater scale, which leads to greater social organization and prosperity, which leads to more state revenue, which leads to bigger state armies."
• Generational Traits: The excerpt touches upon specific generational trends, noting Millennials' tendency towards less risk-taking and longer time horizons compared to Boomers.
• "From first birth year to last, Millennials have trended strongly toward less risk taking and longer time horizons—as measured by rates of crime and substance abuse (falling) and educational attainment (rising)."
• Social Trust and Disorder: Levels of social trust are inversely correlated with criminal violence, suggesting a link between societal cohesion and adherence to the law. Patriotism, measured by the naming of new counties after national heroes, is presented as a proxy for social trust.
• "When people believe their government is stable and legitimate and their social hierarchy is fair, they commit fewer murders—and vice versa."
• Substance Abuse Cycles: Trends in per-capita alcohol and other mind-altering substance consumption tend to follow an approximately eighty-year cycle, reflecting changing societal attitudes towards these substances.
• "During the current saeculum, per-capita alcohol consumption began rising around 1960, peaked around 1980, and fell until the early 2000s. For other mind-altering substances (including most stimulants, narcotics, and hallucinogens), the trends are similar."
• The "Rip Van Winkle" Analogy: Washington Irving's story is used to illustrate the disorientation and societal transformation that can occur between saecula, particularly after a Crisis.
• When Rip awakes and returns to his village, he finds that the cornerstones of his former society have been transformed beyond comprehension."
• The G.I. Generation as a "Hero" Archetype: The G.I. Generation is presented as a confident and effective "Hero" archetype, shaped by the Crisis of World War II and responsible for significant national achievements.
• "Energized by teamwork and empowered by government, these G.I.s have been the confident and rational problem-solvers of twentieth-century America..."

Conclusion

The excerpts from "The Fourth Turning Is Here" lay out a compelling framework for understanding long-term historical trends as cyclical and driven by the interplay between saecula, their four turnings, and recurring generational archetypes. The text suggests a degree of predictability in social, political, and economic developments based on these cycles, highlighting the transformative and often challenging nature of Crisis eras. The concepts presented offer a lens through which to analyze past events and potentially anticipate future societal shifts.

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