Book: Coming Wave

This briefing document summarizes the main themes and important ideas presented in the excerpts from "The Coming Wave" by Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar. The authors argue that humanity is on the cusp of a new era defined by the convergence of powerful general-purpose technologies – particularly artificial intelligence (AI), advanced biotechnology, quantum computing, and robotics. This "coming wave" promises unprecedented progress but also presents profound challenges to individuals, societies, and the existing world order, particularly the nation-state.

I. The Nature of Technological Waves:

• Historical Context: The book emphasizes that history is marked by technological waves, from the mastery of fire to the agricultural and industrial revolutions. These waves are characterized by the emergence and proliferation of general-purpose technologies that reshape economies, societies, and human life.
• Acceleration and Interrelatedness: The coming wave is distinct due to the accelerating pace of technological development and the interconnected nature of its core components. Invention sparks further invention, creating a "turbo-proliferation" of new tools and techniques. The authors state, "Waves lay the ground for further scientific and technological experimentation, nudging open the doors of possibility. This in turn yields new tools and techniques, new areas of research—new domains of technology itself."
• General-Purpose Technologies: The current wave is anchored by AI, advanced biotechnology, quantum computing, and robotics. These technologies are "accelerants" with broad applications across various sectors, leading to a "protean complexity" and a tendency to "mushroom and spill over." The internal combustion engine and computing are cited as examples of past general-purpose technologies with similarly transformative impacts.

II. Key Technologies of the Coming Wave:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI): The authors, with Suleyman's background as a co-founder of DeepMind, place significant emphasis on AI. They highlight the ambition to "replicate the very thing that makes us unique as a species, our intelligence." This involves creating systems that can "imitate and then eventually outperform all human cognitive abilities."
• Large Language Models (LLMs): The document explains how LLMs work by ingesting text, creating "tokens," and building "attention maps" to understand relationships between words and predict the next tokens in a sequence, essentially "autocomplete[ing] what might come next."
• Potential: AI is portrayed as a technology with immense potential for automation, problem-solving, and creating new possibilities across industries. DeepMind's work in areas like game playing (AlphaGo) and optimizing data center cooling are presented as examples.
• Advanced Biotechnology (SynBio): This encompasses gene editing (like CRISPR), gene synthesis, and synthetic biology. The falling costs of DNA synthesis are highlighted, with examples like the "Kilobaser DNA & RNA Synthesizer, sold starting at $25,000."
• Potential: SynBio is seen as enabling the design and creation of new biological systems, with applications in medicine (gene therapy), agriculture (drought-tolerant crops), energy (biofuels), and even computing (DNA-based data storage and "transcriptors" as biological logic gates). The authors envision an "age of biomachines and biocomputers, where strands of DNA perform calculations and artificial cells are put to work. Where machines come alive. Welcome to the age of synthetic life."
• Quantum Computing: This technology leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations far beyond the capabilities of classical computers. Google's claim of achieving "quantum supremacy" in 2019 is noted.
• Potential: Quantum computing promises breakthroughs in fields like materials science, drug discovery, and cryptography due to its exponentially increasing computational power with each additional "qubit."
• Robotics: The field is described as "coming of age," moving beyond industrial applications to more versatile and autonomous systems.
• Swarming Robots: The potential of robots to work collectively as a "hive mind" is highlighted, with examples like Harvard's Kilobots. Applications range from environmental remediation to construction and agriculture. The patent filed by Walmart for "robot bees to collaborate and cross-pollinate crops autonomously" illustrates the innovative possibilities.

III. Driving Forces and Incentives:

• Civilization's Appetite: The authors assert that "Civilization’s appetite for useful and cheaper technologies is boundless. This will not change." This inherent demand fuels the development and adoption of new technologies.
• Profit Motive: The pursuit of economic gain is a significant driver, with companies forming and attracting investment around these new technologies.
• Geopolitical Competition: The book highlights how great power conflict has historically spurred technological development, citing Bletchley Park's code-breaking efforts during WWII. Today, nations are engaged in a new kind of technological race, with countries like the US, China, the EU, and India investing heavily in these fields, often driven by "perceived military necessity." India's "Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India)" program exemplifies this drive for technological self-sufficiency.
• Ego and the Drive to Innovate: Beyond practical benefits, the authors acknowledge the powerful human drive to explore, invent, and "build something new." They quote J. Robert Oppenheimer's chilling sentiment: "When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it, and you argue about what to do about it only after you have had your technical success."

IV. The Omni-Use Nature and Asymmetrical Impact of the Coming Wave:

• Dual-Use Technologies: A critical theme is the "omni-use" nature of these technologies, meaning they have both civilian and military applications. This is not limited to obvious cases like nuclear weapons but extends to AI systems that could be designed for games yet capable of controlling weapons. The authors argue, "The real problem is that it’s not just frontier biology or nuclear reactors that are dual use. Most technologies have military and civilian applications or potential; most technologies are in some way dual use. And the more powerful the technology, the more concern there should be about how many uses it might have."
• Asymmetrical Impact: The coming wave will empower both state and non-state actors, including individuals and malicious groups. The falling costs and increasing accessibility of technologies like drones are cited as examples of "bad actor empowerment." This undermines the traditional security monopoly of the state.

V. Fragility Amplification and the Shaken Nation-State:

• Erosion of the Grand Bargain: The authors argue that the nation-state's fundamental "grand bargain" – offering security and prosperity in exchange for centralized power – is being challenged by the coming wave. The empowerment of non-state actors, the rise of cyber threats, and the potential for widespread disruption erode the state's ability to provide security.
• Rise of Corporate Power: The book suggests that private corporations could grow to rival or even surpass the power and reach of many nation-states. The example of the Samsung Group in South Korea is used to illustrate the potential for concentrated corporate influence, even in areas traditionally considered the domain of governments (e.g., education, defense, law enforcement). The dispute resolution system of eBay and PayPal handling more cases than the US legal system is presented as a sign of this shift.
• Emergence of Hybrid Entities: The case of Hezbollah in Lebanon is presented as an example of a "hybrid" entity that operates both within and outside state institutions, wielding significant power and providing state-like services. The coming wave could make such "Hezbollahization" more plausible, leading to a more fragmented and localized world order.
• Surveillance and Authoritarianism: The vast amounts of data being collected by corporations and governments create opportunities for enhanced surveillance and potentially more effective authoritarian control. The authors describe the pervasive data collection in modern cities, noting, "Almost every detail of life is logged, somewhere, by those with the sophistication to process and act on the data they collect."

VI. The Inevitability of the Wave and the Need for "Containment":

• Unstoppable Incentives: The authors acknowledge that the incentives driving the coming wave are deeply ingrained and essentially "unstoppable."
• The Dilemma: The core dilemma is how to harness the immense potential of these technologies for good while mitigating the significant risks they pose.
• The Concept of "Containment": While acknowledging that complete prevention is unlikely, the authors propose "containment" as a strategy focused on "marginal gains, the slow and constant aggregation of small efforts to produce a greater probability of good outcomes." This involves creating a different context for technology development and deployment.
• Areas of Focus for Containment (Introduced): The excerpt concludes by outlining the intent to discuss ten areas of focus for managing the coming wave, including licensing regimes for powerful AI models and a "contemporary version" of the Hippocratic oath for technologists ("First, do no harm").

VII. Historical Parallels and Lessons:

• Ottoman Empire and the Printing Press: The Ottoman Empire's attempt to ban the printing press is presented as a historical example of resisting a technological wave, ultimately hindering its progress.
• Nuclear Technology: The development and partial containment of nuclear weapons offer a potential, albeit complex and still precarious, analogy for managing other powerful technologies. The Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is highlighted as a "landmark moment" where nations agreed to limit proliferation due to the clear destructive potential and the logic of mutually assured destruction. However, ongoing proliferation concerns and the risk of non-state actors acquiring such weapons are also noted.
• Industrial Revolution: The resistance to the Industrial Revolution by groups like the Luddites is mentioned, highlighting the social and economic disruptions that accompany major technological shifts.

Overall Theme:

The excerpts from "The Coming Wave" paint a picture of a rapidly approaching future shaped by transformative technologies. While optimistic about the potential for progress, the authors underscore the unprecedented challenges these technologies pose to existing societal structures, particularly the nation-state. The concept of "containment" suggests a pragmatic approach focused on managing risks and maximizing benefits in an era of inevitable and accelerating technological change.

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